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Varvara Esina v Tamara Holzbauerová (Sun 19 Jan 2020)

Match won by Varvara Esina. Result: 11-4,9-11,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,731, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tamara Holzbauerová: 2,801, level confidence: 63%.
Tamara Holzbauerová to win as she is currently playing 3% better than Varvara Esina.

Varvara Esina won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Varvara Esina played 27% better than Tamara Holzbauerová in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Varvara Esina actually played at a level of 3,118 and Tamara Holzbauerová at a level of 2,454. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Varvara Esina changes to +11% and Tamara Holzbauerová changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Varvara Esina becomes +4.9% and for Tamara Holzbauerová becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Czech Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tamara Holzbauerová is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Varvara Esina: 88%, Tamara Holzbauerová: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Varvara Esina: 77%, Tamara Holzbauerová: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,873, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tamara Holzbauerová: 2,674, level confidence: 70%.