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Varvara Esina v Nika Urh (Sat 18 Jan 2020)

Match won by Varvara Esina. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,721, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Nika Urh: 1,960, level confidence: 68%.
Varvara Esina to win as she is currently playing 39% better than Nika Urh.

Varvara Esina won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Varvara Esina played 31% better than Nika Urh in this match.

In this case, Varvara Esina played at level 2,597 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Varvara Esina would normally have been playing at level 2,630 (based on typical behaviour), Nika Urh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Varvara Esina changes to 0% and Nika Urh changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Varvara Esina becomes 0% and for Nika Urh becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Czech Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Varvara Esina: 80%, Nika Urh: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Varvara Esina: 77%, Nika Urh: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,728, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Nika Urh: 1,980, level confidence: 80%.