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Varvara Esina v Manca Dem?Ar (Sat 18 Jan 2020)

Match won by Varvara Esina. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,806, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Manca Dem?Ar: 1,105, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Varvara Esina to win as she is currently playing 154% better than Manca Dem?Ar.

Varvara Esina won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Varvara Esina played 34% better than Manca Dem?Ar in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Varvara Esina was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,836 and 2,806 without affecting her level.

As Varvara Esina has played below her allowed range at 1,648, her level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Varvara Esina would normally have been playing at level 2,270 (based on typical behaviour), Manca Dem?Ar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Varvara Esina changes to -6.7% and Manca Dem?Ar changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Varvara Esina becomes -3.4% and for Manca Dem?Ar becomes +8.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Czech Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Varvara Esina: 87%, Manca Dem?Ar: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Varvara Esina: 63%, Manca Dem?Ar: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,722, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Manca Dem?Ar: 1,198, level confidence: 62%.