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Cristina Tartarone v Alesya Aleshina (Mon 06 Jan 2020)

Match won by Cristina Tartarone. Result: 6-11,11-9,10-12,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Cristina Tartarone: 4,186, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,936, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Cristina Tartarone to win as she is currently playing 6% better than Alesya Aleshina.

Cristina Tartarone won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cristina Tartarone played 10% better than Alesya Aleshina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cristina Tartarone actually played at a level of 4,264 and Alesya Aleshina at a level of 3,864. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cristina Tartarone changes to +1.8% and Alesya Aleshina changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cristina Tartarone becomes +1.1% and for Alesya Aleshina becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cristina Tartarone: 86%, Alesya Aleshina: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cristina Tartarone: 85%, Alesya Aleshina: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cristina Tartarone: 4,243, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,906, level confidence: 89%.