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Grace Clark v Alesya Aleshina (Sun 05 Jan 2020)

Match won by Grace Clark. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Grace Clark: 3,922, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 4,003, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Alesya Aleshina to win as she is currently playing 2% better than Grace Clark.

Grace Clark won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Grace Clark played 25% better than Alesya Aleshina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Grace Clark actually played at a level of 4,435 and Alesya Aleshina at a level of 3,540. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Grace Clark changes to +13% and Alesya Aleshina changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Grace Clark becomes +4.9% and for Alesya Aleshina becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Grace Clark: 87%, Alesya Aleshina: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Grace Clark: 77%, Alesya Aleshina: 82%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Grace Clark: 4,123, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,928, level confidence: 82%.