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Varvara Esina v Nika Urh (Sun 08 Dec 2019)

Match won by Varvara Esina. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,666, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nika Urh: 1,728, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Varvara Esina to win as she is currently playing 54% better than Nika Urh.

Varvara Esina won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Varvara Esina played 65% better than Nika Urh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Varvara Esina actually played at a level of 2,757 and Nika Urh at a level of 1,671. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Varvara Esina changes to +2.7% and Nika Urh changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Varvara Esina becomes +1.9% and for Nika Urh becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Varvara Esina: 86%, Nika Urh: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Varvara Esina: 83%, Nika Urh: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,724, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nika Urh: 1,699, level confidence: 88%.