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Franka Vidovic v Varvara Esina (Sat 07 Dec 2019)

Match won by Franka Vidovic. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Franka Vidovic: 4,076, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,713, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Franka Vidovic to win as she is currently playing 50% better than Varvara Esina.

Franka Vidovic won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Franka Vidovic played 106% better than Varvara Esina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Franka Vidovic actually played at a level of 4,776 and Varvara Esina at a level of 2,316. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Franka Vidovic changes to +14% and Varvara Esina changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Franka Vidovic becomes +5.1% and for Varvara Esina becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Franka Vidovic: 73%, Varvara Esina: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Franka Vidovic: 63%, Varvara Esina: 74%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Franka Vidovic: 4,293, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,663, level confidence: 74%.