Varvara Esina v Zo? Faure (Thu 05 Dec 2019)
Match won by Varvara Esina. Result: 11-2,12-10,11-8.
Starting level for
Varvara Esina:
2,545, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Zo? Faure:
1,850, level confidence: 53%.
Varvara Esina to win as she is currently playing
38% better than Zo? Faure.
Varvara Esina won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Varvara Esina played
70% better than Zo? Faure in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Varvara Esina actually played at a level of
2,829 and Zo? Faure at a level of
1,664. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 9.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Varvara Esina changes to +9.4% and Zo? Faure changes to -8.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Varvara Esina becomes +4.4% and for Zo? Faure becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Varvara Esina: 68%, Zo? Faure: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Varvara Esina: 61%, Zo? Faure: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Varvara Esina:
2,662, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Zo? Faure:
1,777, level confidence: 65%.