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Selena Georgieva v Alesya Aleshina (Sun 03 Nov 2019)

Match won by Selena Georgieva. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Selena Georgieva: 4,467, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,994, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Selena Georgieva to win as she is currently playing 12% better than Alesya Aleshina.

Selena Georgieva won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Selena Georgieva played 74% better than Alesya Aleshina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Selena Georgieva actually played at a level of 5,567 and Alesya Aleshina at a level of 3,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Selena Georgieva changes to +23% and Alesya Aleshina changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Selena Georgieva becomes +7.5% and for Alesya Aleshina becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Selena Georgieva is limited to +6.3% and Alesya Aleshina is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Selena Georgieva: 91%, Alesya Aleshina: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Selena Georgieva: 73%, Alesya Aleshina: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Selena Georgieva: 4,759, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,813, level confidence: 75%.