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Alesya Aleshina v Tereza Široká (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alesya Aleshina. Result: 11-9,4-11,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,921, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tereza Široká: 2,848, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Alesya Aleshina to win as she is currently playing 38% better than Tereza Široká.

Alesya Aleshina won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alesya Aleshina played 33% better than Tereza Široká in this match.

In this case, Alesya Aleshina played at level 3,786 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tereza Široká is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina changes to 0% and Tereza Široká changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina becomes 0% and for Tereza Široká becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alesya Aleshina: 91%, Tereza Široká: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alesya Aleshina: 89%, Tereza Široká: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,931, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tereza Široká: 2,859, level confidence: 92%.