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Alesya Aleshina v Yuna Loaec (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alesya Aleshina. Result: 11-8,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,833, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yuna Loaec: 2,835, level confidence: 66%.
Alesya Aleshina to win as she is currently playing 35% better than Yuna Loaec.

Alesya Aleshina won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alesya Aleshina played 50% better than Yuna Loaec in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alesya Aleshina actually played at a level of 4,040 and Yuna Loaec at a level of 2,690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina changes to +4.1% and Yuna Loaec changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina becomes +2.2% and for Yuna Loaec becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alesya Aleshina: 86%, Yuna Loaec: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alesya Aleshina: 82%, Yuna Loaec: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,928, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Yuna Loaec: 2,769, level confidence: 77%.