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Ambre Allinckx v Alesya Aleshina (Sat 05 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ambre Allinckx. Result: 11-4,11-2,12-10.

Starting level for Ambre Allinckx: 5,754, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,949, level confidence: 69%.
Ambre Allinckx to win as she is currently playing 46% better than Alesya Aleshina.

Ambre Allinckx won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 113% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ambre Allinckx played 113% better than Alesya Aleshina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ambre Allinckx actually played at a level of 6,949 and Alesya Aleshina at a level of 3,270. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ambre Allinckx changes to +16% and Alesya Aleshina changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ambre Allinckx becomes +5.1% and for Alesya Aleshina becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Nordic by Salming Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alesya Aleshina is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ambre Allinckx: 86%, Alesya Aleshina: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ambre Allinckx: 71%, Alesya Aleshina: 69%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ambre Allinckx: 6,065, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,845, level confidence: 69%.