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Alesya Aleshina v Lea Barbeau (Sat 05 Oct 2019)

Match won by Alesya Aleshina. Result: 11-5,11-9,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,753, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Lea Barbeau: 3,740, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Alesya Aleshina to win as she is currently playing 0% better than Lea Barbeau.

Alesya Aleshina won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alesya Aleshina played 28% better than Lea Barbeau in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alesya Aleshina actually played at a level of 4,246 and Lea Barbeau at a level of 3,306. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina changes to +13% and Lea Barbeau changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina becomes +5% and for Lea Barbeau becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Nordic by Salming Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alesya Aleshina: 78%, Lea Barbeau: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alesya Aleshina: 69%, Lea Barbeau: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,949, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Lea Barbeau: 3,591, level confidence: 74%.