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Alesya Aleshina v Virginie Gustin (Fri 04 Oct 2019)

Match won by Alesya Aleshina. Result: 11-6,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,780, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Virginie Gustin: 2,018, level confidence: 35%.
Alesya Aleshina to win as she is currently playing 87% better than Virginie Gustin.

Alesya Aleshina won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alesya Aleshina played 41% better than Virginie Gustin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alesya Aleshina was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,042 and 3,780 without affecting her level.

As Alesya Aleshina has played below her allowed range at 2,946, her level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Alesya Aleshina would normally have been playing at level 3,391 (based on typical behaviour), Virginie Gustin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina changes to -1.7% and Virginie Gustin changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alesya Aleshina becomes -1.1% and for Virginie Gustin becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Nordic by Salming Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alesya Aleshina: 70%, Virginie Gustin: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alesya Aleshina: 61%, Virginie Gustin: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alesya Aleshina: 3,750, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Virginie Gustin: 2,096, level confidence: 51%.