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Jakub Solnicky v Vladislav Titov (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jakub Solnicky. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Jakub Solnicky: 20,646, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Vladislav Titov: 8,362, level confidence: 58%.
Jakub Solnicky to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Vladislav Titov.

Jakub Solnicky won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jakub Solnicky played 83% better than Vladislav Titov in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jakub Solnicky was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,790 and 20,646 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jakub Solnicky played at level 16,083 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jakub Solnicky would normally have been playing at level 16,873 (based on typical behaviour), Vladislav Titov played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jakub Solnicky changes to 0% and Vladislav Titov changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jakub Solnicky becomes 0% and for Vladislav Titov becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Czech Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jakub Solnicky: 70%, Vladislav Titov: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jakub Solnicky: 61%, Vladislav Titov: 66%.

Final level for Jakub Solnicky: 20,646, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Vladislav Titov: 8,477, level confidence: 66%.