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Farkas Balázs v Vladislav Titov (Tue 03 Sep 2019)

Match won by Farkas Balázs. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Farkas Balázs: 25,015, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Vladislav Titov: 8,221, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Farkas Balázs to win as he is currently playing 204% better than Vladislav Titov.

Farkas Balázs won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farkas Balázs played 74% better than Vladislav Titov in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Farkas Balázs was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,116 and 25,015 without affecting his level.

In this case, Farkas Balázs played at level 16,380 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Farkas Balázs would normally have been playing at level 18,791 (based on typical behaviour), Vladislav Titov played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farkas Balázs changes to 0% and Vladislav Titov changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farkas Balázs becomes 0% and for Vladislav Titov becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farkas Balázs: 73%, Vladislav Titov: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farkas Balázs: 56%, Vladislav Titov: 65%.

Final level for Farkas Balázs: 25,015, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Vladislav Titov: 8,410, level confidence: 65%.