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Karina Tyma v Varvara Esina (Mon 02 Sep 2019)

Match won by Karina Tyma. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Karina Tyma: 5,921, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Varvara Esina: 2,729, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Karina Tyma to win as she is currently playing 117% better than Varvara Esina.

Karina Tyma won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karina Tyma played 267% better than Varvara Esina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karina Tyma actually played at a level of 7,697 and Varvara Esina at a level of 2,099. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karina Tyma changes to +19% and Varvara Esina changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karina Tyma becomes +6% and for Varvara Esina becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karina Tyma: 80%, Varvara Esina: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karina Tyma: 61%, Varvara Esina: 68%.

Final level for Karina Tyma: 6,263, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Varvara Esina: 2,568, level confidence: 68%.