Karina Tyma v Varvara Esina (Mon 02 Sep 2019)
Match won by Karina Tyma. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-4.
Starting level for
Karina Tyma:
5,921, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Varvara Esina:
2,729, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Karina Tyma to win as she is currently playing
117% better than Varvara Esina.
Karina Tyma won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karina Tyma played
267% better than Varvara Esina in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karina Tyma actually played at a level of
7,697 and Varvara Esina at a level of
2,099. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karina Tyma changes to +19% and Varvara Esina changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karina Tyma becomes +6% and for Varvara Esina becomes -6.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karina Tyma: 80%, Varvara Esina: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karina Tyma: 61%, Varvara Esina: 68%.
Final level for Karina Tyma:
6,263, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Varvara Esina:
2,568, level confidence: 68%.