SquashLevels calculations
Vladislav Titov v Dumitru Goian (Mon 02 Sep 2019)
Match won by Vladislav Titov. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-6.
Starting level for
Vladislav Titov:
8,175, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Dumitru Goian:
3,245, level confidence: 63%.
Vladislav Titov to win as he is currently playing
152% better than Dumitru Goian.
Vladislav Titov won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vladislav Titov played
106% better than Dumitru Goian in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vladislav Titov was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,380 and 8,175 without affecting his level.
In this case, Vladislav Titov played at level 6,693 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Dumitru Goian is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vladislav Titov: 83%, Dumitru Goian: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vladislav Titov: 75%, Dumitru Goian: 72%.
Final level for Vladislav Titov:
8,175, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dumitru Goian:
3,245, level confidence: 72%.